In a couple of hours, the iPad 2 will be announced by Apple. Here’s my prediction. Now we know that it’s not going to have a retina display, it’s difficult to imagine what new features it will have. Sure, it’s going to have a camera for FaceTime/Skype, but really, is that all it’s going to be?

So here’s my prediction. The new iPad will be cheaper — my bet is $299. Here’s why.

Competitors have had a year, and still they can’t catch up, not in terms of user experience, not in terms of price, and not in terms of apps. Android tablets such as the Samsung Galaxy Tab have a poor user experience. Motorola’s Xoom is significantly more expensive. And other app stores? Forget about it.

Where Apple can pull ahead, is in making something cheaper, to hugely build market share, and enjoy subsequent revenue from the App Store. All these contracts that Apple has signed with electronics manufacturers, around US$6 billion in advanced purchasing commitments — i know, it’s scarcely believable in itself — enables it to push for huge discounts, which it will use to build market share, rather than enjoy short-term premium retail prices for what is still a niche product.

So there it is, i may be wrong, but in the absence of any strong indication of a new killer feature, the One More Thing in today’s keynote could well be the price — US$299. Remember — you heard it here first.

**Note to self — if this goes belly up, never make any predictions again 😉

Anthony Green — March 2011